Apr 22, 2009

Quebec’s “bas de laine”

The 2008 results of the Caisse de depot et de Placement du Québec have been the worst in its whole history. Contrary to the general upheaval that has taken place in the public opinion, it remains important to take one step back to get a broader sense of the role of the Caisse and the utmost important role it has been playing in the economic landscape of the province to create more wealth for its inhabitants.

First, it is important to clarify that the Caisse one of about 25 sovereign wealth funds in all the countries on earth, meaning it is an entity that put public money to work for the good of the nation’s population. Measure its size by assets, the Caisse de depot et Placements du Québec, comes 6th, even after accounting for the catastrophic results of 2008.

Assets under management amount for a staggering 220,5 billion dollars as of December 31st, 2008. That represents about 28000$ Canadian Dollars for each resident of the province. In Canada, only Alberta has a fund of similar purpose, but it is still a lot smaller and younger. If you count the Alaska Permanent Fund, it becomes pretty clear that there are only three funds of that type in North America.

Looking a little further into the future, Quebec has to be on a smart path to create collective wealth, if we think of the magnitude of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. That entity of gigantic proportions manages assets of about 875 billion US dollars... yes billions with a B. Dividing by the number of residents of that kingdom, you get a collective wealth of about 2 million US dollars per person!

That funds managed by the Caisse do not come from a source as lucrative as oil, but with the deposits made to it by numerous provincial pension funds, the Caisse will be a very valuable instrument for the creation of wealth in Quebec. It was a bold proposition from, then Prime Minister Jean Lesage, but it seems that very few people appreciate it and are fast to get angry when things get sour...

Apr 21, 2009

iStar Financial: The Yield Play

iStar Financial Inc. (NYSE: SFI) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the commercial real estate industry.

The only reason I got involved with this company is certainly the fact that it is a great income source, but I later came to notice that it did not come at such a cheap price. Basically iStar, as Ben Graham most notorious student Warren Buffett would put it, is a cigar-butt type of investment; let me explain with a simple analogy. You are walking down the street and, all of a sudden, you find a cigar-butt on the floor. It is repulsive but there’s one or two puffs left on it. It is still ugly but since you are looking for a free puff, you smoke it. That is the definition of a cigar-butt investment; it is free (or almost) but there are a couple of earnings left on it. The shaky nature of the company still makes it attractive for me.
They suspended their dividend in the fourth quarter of 2008. I am holding my position for the simple reason that as soon as the dividend is reinstated, the yield on the my shares will be incredible! Assuming the reinstate the dividend at 20 cents per quarter, less than 75% of the original dividend. At today's closing price of 3.72$ a share, I still get a 21% yield.

So why, if the opportunity is great enough not to be missed by a beginner, doesn't everybody jump on it? It is actually quite simple, people do not know when the dividend will be reinstated and uncertainty is very bad for the price of a stock. Fortunately enough, I am patient and i will wait for as long as it will be necessary because my average purchasing price is way lower than today's closing price.

Comprehensive financial information can be found on their website at: http://www.istarfinancial.com/
Interestingly enough, they put a lot of money for the quality of their website and annual reports and kept doing it for their 2008 annual report, even after a terrible performance.

Full disclosure: the author holds a long position in SFI

FairFax Financial: The most interesting company to date

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSE: FFH. NYSE: FFH) is a financial services holding company. It also is the biggest Canadian reinsurance company. A close look at their financial statements allowed me to conclude that the company had had an excellent return on equity since it went public in 1985: a consistent 20% every year. Talking about the business, the company’s stock is selling under book value and intrinsic value, which is one of the main reasons I decided to get involved with that company. The only reason why people might have missed on that company is that their stock is also selling at a psychologically high level for a trader. Most people would be intimidated by a company with a stock price in the hundreds of dollars, but the intelligent investor looks further than just the price tag. In fact, the price of a stock will be the last element we will take into account in our analysis before making an acquisition.

The ultimate reason I have a very important part of our portfolio in Fairfax is the chairman and CEO: Vivan Prem Wasta. His letters to the shareholders of the company are a masterpiece of financial knowledge and literacy of the insurance industry in Canada. I was far from surprised since he is a proud member and advocate of the value investing philosophy. He adheres to making much reflected acquisitions and keeping the company in a strong financial position; that focus is reflected in their very healthy balance sheet. Since he is a big individual shareholder of Fairfax, his attitude is very much reflected in how he leads the company. He is exactly the king of managers I look for.

Fairfax is probably one of my most promising positions and it has proved its performance by showing record profits in a year gloomed by a bear market. Acquiring parts of that company at such a low price is the closest thing to a robbery and I am pretty sure that I will be even more surprised when the company gets to be fairly valued by the market.

More on their website at: http://www.fairfax.ca/

Full disclosure: Long FFH.TO


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